Colombia Steamrolls to 99.9% Close as Markets Track Dominant Win Over Uzbekistan

Markets opened Colombia as the heavy favorite at 70.85%, with Uzbekistan priced at just 9.55% and the draw at 19.6%. By the final whistle, Colombia had surged to 99.9% while both Uzbekistan and the draw collapsed to 0.05% each. The away side's +29.05pp drift tells the story of a match that unfolded exactly as the market expected—only more so. Uzbekistan's probability bled 9.5pp, the draw shed 19.55pp, and all that conviction flowed to Colombia. The market's directional call proved correct, reflected in the market_correct flag.

This game carried a "Single Source" archetype, meaning price discovery came from one prediction market rather than a blend of platforms. The $23,171,176.32 in volume on Polymarket provided the sole liquidity signal. With 1,552 raw tape snapshots recorded through the match, traders had ample opportunity to react to in-game developments. The absence of crossover signals from Kalshi or sportsbooks meant this was a pure prediction-market story—no bookmaker lines, no alternative consensus to triangulate against.

Despite Colombia's overwhelming close, the surprise index settled at 33.3—suggesting the result, while expected, still carried a meaningful probability of upset at kickoff. The 9.55% opening price for Uzbekistan translated to roughly one-in-ten odds, not a complete write-off. The 70.85% favorite probability meant nearly three in ten scenarios allowed for a non-Colombia result. Markets priced this as chalk, but not a lock. The 99.9% close shows how decisively Colombia erased that doubt.