Market Read It Right: South Korea Favored at 36.0%, South Korea Delivered

At the opening snapshot (10 Jun), the blended Polymarket + Kalshi consensus priced South Korea at 36.0%, Czech Republic at 33.3%, with the draw at 30.7%. Tater tagged the pre-match shape as Unanimous. Prediction-market volume on the match reached $1,121,773.

Between 10 Jun and the final snapshot (12 Jun), South Korea moved -0.7pp to 35.4%, Czech Republic moved +-0.0pp to 33.3%, and the draw moved +0.7pp to 31.4%.

The match ended South Korea. South Korea closed as the favorite at 36.0%, giving a surprise index of 64 (100 − favorite probability). The market had it right: the settled outcome matched the favored side.

This is a snapshot replay, not a 1-second tape. No tick-level capture exists for this match — it was played before Tater's 1-second pipeline was running on it — so the reconstruction above uses only the dated market snapshots we actually recorded and the settled result. Every number on this page comes straight from those snapshots; nothing is interpolated or invented. Matches captured live (see the Mexico–South Africa and Canada–Bosnia replays) carry the full second-by-second tape.