Market Read It Right: USA Favored at 46.8%, USA Delivered

At the opening snapshot (10 Jun), the blended Polymarket + Kalshi consensus priced USA at 49.6%, Paraguay at 22.4%, with the draw at 28.0%. Tater tagged the pre-match shape as Unanimous. Prediction-market volume on the match reached $549,639.

Between 10 Jun and the final snapshot (12 Jun), USA moved -2.9pp to 46.8%, Paraguay moved +1.5pp to 23.9%, and the draw moved +1.3pp to 29.3%.

The match ended USA. USA closed as the favorite at 46.8%, giving a surprise index of 53.2 (100 − favorite probability). The market had it right: the settled outcome matched the favored side.

This is a snapshot replay, not a 1-second tape. No tick-level capture exists for this match — it was played before Tater's 1-second pipeline was running on it — so the reconstruction above uses only the dated market snapshots we actually recorded and the settled result. Every number on this page comes straight from those snapshots; nothing is interpolated or invented. Matches captured live (see the Mexico–South Africa and Canada–Bosnia replays) carry the full second-by-second tape.