Spain vs Cape Verde
Spain 89.6%Draw 6.9%Cape Verde 3.6%
Live market intelligence
World Cup 2026 — Live Market Intelligence
Polymarket + Kalshi + 9 de-vigged sportsbooks, one consensus.
Market Scoreboard
Settled games only · static snapshot updated after each matchday
Favorites 4-4Brier 0.702 vs 0.667 randomLowest-conviction winner: Qatar 14.0%
| Game | Favorite % | Result | Verdict | Surprise index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico vs South Africa | Mexico 68.6% | Mexico | ✓ | 31.4 |
| South Korea vs Czech Republic | South Korea 36.0% | South Korea | ✓ | 64.0 |
| Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | Canada 53.3% | Draw | ✗ | 73.0 |
| USA vs Paraguay | USA 46.8% | USA | ✓ | 53.2 |
| Qatar vs Switzerland | Switzerland 79.3% | Draw | ✗ | 86.0 |
| Brazil vs Morocco | Brazil 57.6% | Draw | ✗ | 75.0 |
| Haiti vs Scotland | Scotland 61.9% | Scotland | ✓ | 38.1 |
| Australia vs Turkiye | Turkiye 56.5% | Australia | ✗ | 81.8 |
Surprise index = 100 − (favorite probability × 100). Higher = more surprising given market price. Brier score: lower is better; random baseline = 0.667. Market Replay: Mexico vs South Africa →
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60 matches priced
Belgium vs Egypt
Belgium 59.7%Draw 23.8%Egypt 16.5%
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay
Saudi Arabia 11.4%Draw 21.4%Uruguay 67.2%
Iran vs New Zealand
Iran 52.4%Draw 27.5%New Zealand 20.1%
France vs Senegal
France 66.1%Draw 21.4%Senegal 12.5%
Iraq vs Norway
Iraq 5.5%Draw 12.4%Norway 82.1%
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Argentina vs Algeria
Argentina 69.5%Draw 20.4%Algeria 10.1%
Austria vs Jordan
Austria 71.9%Draw 17.5%Jordan 10.6%
Portugal vs DR Congo
Portugal 75.3%Draw 16.5%DR Congo 8.1%
England vs Croatia
England 56.3%Draw 24.8%Croatia 18.9%
Ghana vs Panama
Ghana 43.7%Draw 28.6%Panama 27.6%
Uzbekistan vs Colombia
Uzbekistan 9.6%Draw 20%Colombia 70.4%
Czech Republic vs South Africa
Czech Republic 54.6%Draw 24.7%South Africa 20.7%
Switzerland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Switzerland 61.2%Draw 23.3%Bosnia-Herzegovina 15.5%
Canada vs Qatar
Canada 76.1%Draw 16.4%Qatar 7.5%
Mexico vs South Korea
Mexico 49.4%Draw 27.8%South Korea 22.9%
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Markets and odds shown are for informational purposes only. This is not gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.