The number of the day
79.3%
Blended probability for Switzerland to defeat Qatar — the strongest favorite across all four fixtures
Markets price Switzerland as the overwhelming favorite at 79.3% (blended) against Qatar in the earliest kickoff at 19:00 UTC. Kalshi shows 80.1% for the away win, while the books consensus sits at 78.
The slate at a glance
LIVE consensus = current blended price from Polymarket, Kalshi, and the de-vigged 9-book consensus. Δ = movement on the home-team leg vs the baseline recorded at snapshot time. Archetypes per the Tater six-archetype methodology (see footer).
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | LIVE consensus | Δ since Jun 10 open | Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil vs MoroccoView live market → | Sat 6:00 PM ET | 57.7% / draw 25.0% / 17.4% | — | Unanimous |
| Haiti vs ScotlandView live market → | Sat 9:00 PM ET | 16.4% / draw 21.7% / 61.9% | — | Unanimous |
| Qatar vs SwitzerlandView live market → | Sat 3:00 PM ET | 6.7% / draw 14.0% / 79.3% | — | Tight Consensus |
| Australia vs TurkiyeView live market → | Sun 12:00 AM ET | 18.2% / draw 25.3% / 56.5% | — | Unanimous |
LINES table New from Edition #3
Tracks the consensus handicap spread and totals lines across sportsbooks each edition — including the most-balanced line (nearest 50% over/under), its current price, and drift vs the prior edition. A permanent standing feature of Tater WC Daily.
| Game | Spread | Cover % | Drift vs prev | Best total | Over % | Drift vs prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil vs Morocco | -0.75 | 53.6% | 2.5 | 49.2% | ||
| Haiti vs Scotland | 1.0 | 51.8% | 2.75 | 51.6% | ||
| Qatar vs Switzerland | 1.75 | 49.5% | 3.0 | 51.5% | ||
| Australia vs Turkiye | 0.75 | 49.3% | 2.5 | 49.3% |
Cover % = book-average implied probability for the favorite covering the spread. Over % = implied probability for over at the most-balanced total line. Drift = change vs prior edition tracked values.
Snapshot 2026-06-13T06:11Z. The slate table and live board carry current prices; the narrative reflects this snapshot.
Game by game
Markets price Switzerland as the overwhelming favorite at 79.3% (blended) against Qatar in the earliest kickoff at 19:00 UTC. Kalshi shows 80.1% for the away win, while the books consensus sits at 78.5%. The platform spread of 1.6pp signals tight alignment across prediction markets and sportsbooks, earning a Tight Consensus archetype. Qatar draws minimal support at 6.7% (blended), with the draw priced at 14.0%. The tracked spread sits at 1.75 goals, with books averaging 49.5% on the line across two books. The total line of 3.0 goals carries 51.5% average pricing across two books.
Brazil enters as a moderate favorite at 57.7% (blended) against Morocco at 22:00 UTC. Kalshi prices Brazil at 58.0%, nearly matching the books consensus of 57.3%. The platform spread of just 0.8pp earns the fixture a Unanimous archetype. Morocco sits at 17.4% (blended), while the draw commands 25.0%. The tracked spread of -0.75 goals carries an average price of 53.6% across two books. The tracked total of 2.5 goals shows 49.2% average pricing across four books, suggesting balanced expectations on scoring output. Books count reaches nine for this matchup.
Scotland opens as the clear favorite at 61.9% (blended) against Haiti in the 01:00 UTC window. Kalshi and books consensus align tightly at 62.2% and 61.7% respectively, producing a platform spread of only 0.51pp and a Unanimous archetype designation. Haiti draws 16.4% backing (blended), with the draw at 21.7%. The tracked spread of 1.0 goal carries an average price of 51.8% across two books. The total line sits at 2.75 goals with 51.6% average pricing across two books, suggesting modest scoring expectations in this matchup.
Turkiye enters as the favorite at 56.5% (blended) against Australia in the final kickoff at 04:00 UTC. Kalshi prices Turkiye at 56.7%, fractionally above the books consensus of 56.3%, producing the tightest platform spread in the dataset at 0.36pp. Australia sits at 18.2% (blended), while the draw commands 25.3%. The tracked spread of 0.75 goals carries an average price of 49.3%, mirroring the 49.3% average on the 2.5-goal total across four books. The tight platform alignment earns a Unanimous archetype designation. Nine books contribute to the consensus pricing.
Methodology footnote
Six archetypes from the Tater playbook: Unanimous (<1pp platform spread), Tight Consensus (1–2pp), Quiet Edge (2–4pp), Camp Split (PMs and books disagree as groups), Lone Voice / Lone Hawk (one platform/book against the field). Sportsbook probabilities are de-vigged (proportional 3-way normalization). Prediction-market prices are traded order-book prices, treated as vig-free.
Compliance
Markets and odds shown are for informational purposes only. This is not gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
About Tater
Tater is the discovery and comparison layer for prediction markets and sportsbooks. We aggregate real-time prices across 16 platforms, surface cross-platform edges, and help users find the best lines without holding accounts everywhere. Learn more at taterit.com.
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Tater World Cup Daily is produced by Tater (taterit.com) — prediction-market and sportsbook intelligence. Edition #4 of daily coverage running through the Final.