Tater Research
The cross-platform analytical layer for prediction markets and sportsbooks.
Long-form, data-driven case studies built from minute- and second-resolution public API data across Polymarket, Kalshi, and the European bookmaker consensus. Open methodology, open datasets, reproducible findings.
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The Pulse
The biggest moves today, the narrative briefs, and the divergence alerts across Kalshi, Polymarket, and sportsbooks — for politics, sports, economics, and more — in one scrollable feed.
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Market Pulse — editorial review
Live tape briefs, per-venue prices, movements, and divergence across Kalshi, Polymarket, and sportsbooks. Editorial sign-off surface.
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The Guide · Start Here
How to Read Tater
What the market believes vs what you actually pay. Sportsbook vig, exchange commission, prediction-market fees, and the star that does the math for you.
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New Case Study · Market Infrastructure
Who Resolves the Music Markets?
We classified 23,105 Kalshi music markets by the referee named in their own rules: four regimes, a four-year Luminate drought, a pivot nobody announced, and a Spotify manipulation scandal three months later. The referee is the risk.
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Case studies
- 12 min read
Championship Week Through the Cross-Platform Lens
Two championship events. Five days. Twelve pricing sources. What prediction markets and sportsbooks see differently.
The 2026 UEFA Champions League Final went to penalties and the NBA Western Conference Finals went to a Game 7 road upset. We tracked both across Polymarket, Kalshi, and ten sportsbooks — pre-game, in-play, and post-resolution. The signature finding: the 17.2-point gap between PSG's 90-minute and outright probabilities encoded a 59% conditional that PSG would win in extra time or penalties. It did. Plus the NBA total market that corrected itself from a 23.5-point miss to 1.5 across three games.
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- 14 min read
The Anatomy of a Final: How Three Markets Watched Olympiacos Beat Real Madrid
A minute-by-minute reconstruction of moneyline, spread, and total movement across Polymarket, Kalshi, and ten major sportsbooks before, during, and after the 2026 EuroLeague championship game.
At 19:28 UTC, the price of an Olympiacos win fell to 49.5 cents for exactly one minute — for sixty seconds the market thought Real Madrid would take the title. Forty-three minutes later it was certain of the opposite. This study reconstructs the full pre-game, immediate pre-game, and in-play windows from 1,991 one-minute Polymarket points, 577 Kalshi candlesticks, 2,462 trades, and 95 sportsbook snapshots across ten books in three regions.
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- 18 min read
The Long Wrong, The Smart Exit, and the 25-Minute Truth
A cross-platform microstructure reconstruction of Eurovision 2026 across Polymarket, Kalshi, and the European bookmaker consensus.
Three independent betting systems all priced Finland as the runaway favourite. Bulgaria — the eventual winner — sat at 2–3% across every system for most of the cycle. This study reconstructs the full cycle from public API data at minute and second resolution, including the six pre-broadcast volume shocks on Finland and the precise sequence in which the prediction markets repriced Bulgaria's win.
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The proof record
World Cup 2026 · Complete Archive
39 days, 100 matches, published in full — including the misses
Blended consensus from Polymarket, Kalshi, and nine de-vigged sportsbooks across every group game and knockout round, from June 11 through the Final on July 19 2026. Favourites finished 65–35. Every edition is archived; every result is on the record.
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The World Cup pieces
The essay
What the window saw
A market price is a belief with a cost attached. Thirty-nine days of watching every venue at once, and what that vantage point revealed.
The record
39 days, 100 matches, one ledger
Every settled match against the price it closed at — favourites 65–35, the full calibration record, and the corrections we published on ourselves.
The semi-finals
The window pays off
Both semi-final favourites lost outright in 48 hours, breaking a pattern that had held for a month.
Round of 32
No favourite lost in regulation. Five drew. One was Argentina.
The pattern that defined the first knockout round — and the moment we corrected our own maths in public.
Match study
Ten men, two goals, one fifteen-minute panic
A red card, a comeback, and a market that repriced three times in a quarter of an hour.
The fee lens
When the market can’t decide, the fees decide
Where venues agree on the belief, the cost of taking the side is the only thing separating them.
Group stage
The group stage through the market’s eyes
Forty-eight teams, one consensus, and the first sign that favourites were drawing rather than losing.
Team USA
Team USA beat their price in every group game
The hosts were underpriced three times running, and the market kept adjusting too slowly.
Aftermath
The USA is out. American soccer isn’t.
What the futures markets said about the American game after the hosts went home.
Quarter-finals
Norway killed the chalk
The upset that broke the bracket, and the two ties the market refused to call.
Mid-tournament
They draw, they don’t lose
The signature pattern of the 2026 World Cup, named while it was still running.
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