The number of the day
64.0%
Argentina — the lead market read
Blended market read: New Zealand 16.6%, draw 23.7%, Egypt 59.7% — Unanimous (0.95pp cross-platform spread).
The slate at a glance
LIVE consensus = current blended price from Polymarket, Kalshi, and the de-vigged 9-book consensus. Δ = movement on the home-team leg vs the baseline recorded at snapshot time. Archetypes per the Tater six-archetype methodology (see footer).
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | LIVE consensus | Δ since Jun 10 open | Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand vs EgyptView live market → | Sun 9:00 PM ET | 13.5% / draw 15.9% / 70.5% | — | Single Source |
| Argentina vs AustriaView live market → | Mon 1:00 PM ET | 66.2% / draw 21.8% / 11.9% | — | Tight Consensus |
| France vs IraqView live market → | Mon 5:00 PM ET | 89.9% / draw 7.4% / 2.7% | — | Quiet Edge |
LINES table New from Edition #3
Tracks the consensus handicap spread and totals lines across sportsbooks each edition — including the most-balanced line (nearest 50% over/under), its current price, and drift vs the prior edition. A permanent standing feature of Tater WC Daily.
| Game | Spread | Cover % | Drift vs prev | Best total | Over % | Drift vs prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand vs Egypt | 1.75 | 50.1% | 3.0 | 49.9% | ||
| Argentina vs Austria | -1.0 | 55.4% | 2.5 | 52.9% | ||
| France vs Iraq | -2.75 | 51.6% | 3.5 | 54.1% |
Cover % = book-average implied probability for the favorite covering the spread. Over % = implied probability for over at the most-balanced total line. Drift = change vs prior edition tracked values.
Snapshot 2026-06-22T08:31Z. The slate table and live board carry current prices; the narrative reflects this snapshot.
Game by game
Blended market read: New Zealand 16.6%, draw 23.7%, Egypt 59.7% — Unanimous (0.95pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Argentina 64.0%, draw 22.7%, Austria 13.3% — Quiet Edge (2.44pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: France 89.2%, draw 7.7%, Iraq 3.1% — Tight Consensus (1.43pp cross-platform spread).
Market favorites have held in 27 of 39 settled games (69%). Biggest shock so far: Qatar vs Switzerland — draw won against a 79.3% favorite (surprise index 86). On the 12 upset(s), the de-vigged books put the most weight on the actual result 6 time(s) — the case for reading every source, not one.
Methodology footnote
Six archetypes from the Tater playbook: Unanimous (<1pp platform spread), Tight Consensus (1–2pp), Quiet Edge (2–4pp), Camp Split (PMs and books disagree as groups), Lone Voice / Lone Hawk (one platform/book against the field). Sportsbook probabilities are de-vigged (proportional 3-way normalization). Prediction-market prices are traded order-book prices, treated as vig-free.
Compliance
Markets and odds shown are for informational purposes only. This is not gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
About Tater
Tater is the discovery and comparison layer for prediction markets and sportsbooks. We aggregate real-time prices across 16 platforms, surface cross-platform edges, and help users find the best lines without holding accounts everywhere. Learn more at taterit.com.
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Tater World Cup Daily is produced by Tater (taterit.com) — prediction-market and sportsbook intelligence. Edition #12 of daily coverage running through the Final.